學術活動公告

學術活動公告

【107年5月28日政治學方法論海外前沿研究演講】How Much Should We Trust Estimates for Multiplicative Interaction Models? Simple Tools to Improve Empirical Practice (我們應多麼信賴交互作用模型?改善經驗實踐的簡單方法)

■時間:5月28日(一)上午10:30至中午12:00

■地點:臺大社會科學院院108教師聯誼室(臺大社會科學院大樓1樓)

■講者: 徐軼青教授 (加州大學聖地牙哥分校政治學系)

■主持人:張佑宗主任(臺大政治學系)

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★ 本演講使用中文討論英文論文。欲事先閱讀英文論文,請於此處下載。欲複製論文中的統計結果,則於此處下載數據檔

★ 英文摘要: Multiplicative interaction models are widely used in social science to examine whether the relationship between an outcome and an independent variable changes with a moderating variable. Current empirical practice tends to overlook two important problems. First, these models assume a linear interaction effect that changes at a constant rate with the moderator. Second, estimates of the conditional effects of the independent variable can be misleading if there is a lack of common support of the moderator. Replicating 46 interaction effects from 22 recent publications in five top political science journals, we find that these core assumptions often fail in practice, suggesting that a large portion of findings across all political science subfields based on interaction models are modeling artifacts or are at best highly model dependent. We propose a checklist of simple diagnostics to assess the validity of these assumptions and offer flexible estimation strategies that allow for nonlinear interaction effects and safeguard against excessive extrapolation. These statistical routines are available in both R and STATA

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★ 聯絡人:陳聿伶,電話:(02)3366-8450。

 

 

更新時間: 2018-05-06 17:05:33