« Taiwan Journal of Political Science No.81Publish: 2019/09

The Impact of Armed Forces’ Loyalty and Cohesion on the Onset of Civil Wars

Author: Ping-kuei Chen

Abstract / Chinese PDF Download

This paper examines the relationship between a state’s control over its security forces and the onset of civil war. A government-controlled force represents a state’s capacity to deter and repress armed rebellion. Whether armed forces are willing to follow orders and fight for the government or not represents its capacity to repress rebellion. This is a main factor that is taken into account when rebels plan to initiate an armed conflict. More autonomous armed forces, or an internal split within the forces, could weaken a state’s capacity for repression. Rebels are more inclined to begin rebellions under these conditions. Using the UCDP data between 1946 and 2014, this paper analyzes the relations between governments and their armed forces. The findings suggest that records of defection in the security sector, experiencing a coup d’état, or having divided security institutions increases the probability of civil war. The paper concludes that successful deterrence against armed rebellion depends on strong cohesion between a government and its armed forces. Rebels are more sensitive to the information of their government’s capacity to mobilize rather than the size and equipment of the government forces.

Keywords:Armed Forces、Asymmetric Information、Civil War、civil-military relations