國立臺灣大學政治科學論叢

Abstract / Chinese PDF Download

It is well-known that the modernization paradigm that dominated the field of comparative politics in the 1950s and 1960s and  resurged  in  the 1980s is centered on the theme that economic and social development will bring about political openness and democracy. Based on this theorem, one may  predict  that  the  high  growth  of  the  mainland  Chinese  economy during  the  reform  period  is  bound  to  lead  to  political  liberalization. Another  theory  on  this  matter,  the  regime  stability  theory,  asserts  that rapid  economic  development  led  by  an  authoritarian  regime  tends  to strengthen  its  rule  and  facilitate  the  suppression  of  democratic  forces. When  applied  to  the  Chinese  mainland,  regime  stability  theory  predicts that  economic  reform  will  be  substituted  for  political  reform  to  provide legitimacy   for   the   dictatorship   of   the   Chinese   Communist   Party. Apparently  modernization  paradigm  and  regime  stability  theory  predict different impacts of economic development on authoritarian politics. The purpose of this paper is to compare the modernization paradigm and   the   regime   stability   theory,   and   to   explore   their   respective applicability to the mainland Chinese case. It is found that the legitimacy of an authoritarian regime first rises with successful economic reform, as predicted  by  the  regime  stability  theory,  then  declines  following  the prediction of the modernization paradigm, thus forming a “U” curve. It is the  case  because  modernization  fues  intrinsic  demand  for  democracy. This  new  model  combines  the  theoretical  thrusts  of  the  modernization paradigm  and  the  regime  stability  theory  to  provide  a  sophisticated analysis of the economic and social background for political change in the Chinese Mainland.