Bilateral Relations between the Two Greatest Powers (1660-2006)
Author: Hsin-wei Tang
Abstract / Chinese PDF Download
Conflict and cooperation between the two most powerful countries is a coreissue in the field of international relations. A war between two powerful nationsusually causes serious loss of life and property, with further implications far beyondthe boundaries of the combatant states. The Second World War is a vivid example,and the subsequent U.S.-Soviet rivalry led the world to the brink of nucleardestruction. Not long after the end of the Cold War between the United States andSoviet Union, China became the second strongest power in the world, with overallnational capabilities inferior only to those of the United States. As a result, therelationship between Washington and Beijing is the central focus within theinternational arena today. Can traditional IR theories adequately explain relationsbetween these “greatest powers”?
By examining conflict and cooperation between the two most powerful statesin the international political system from 1660 to 2006, the author finds thefollowing: first, the higher the power ratio between the second largest power and thelargest one, the lower the tendency for conflict between them. This finding isconsistent with balance-of-power theory, but contradicts power transition theory.Second, the tendency to conflict between two democratic powers is low. Third, alower economic developmental gap leads to a higher tendency to conflict. Fourth,the tendency to conflict is high between two nuclear powers. Fifth, geographicproximity increases the tendency to conflict. Sixth, among the above five factors,relative power and regime type are the most important.