國立臺灣大學政治科學論叢

Why is it possible for two great powers to make a transition from a long-lasting war into a time of peaceful coexistence?Structural realists believe that a balance of material capabilities can lead to peace, while constructivists remind us that we cannot ignore ideational factors. Utilizing the two-stage model from Jervis and Levy, this paper integrates both material and ideational factors and takes the Chanyuan Covenant as an example. It describes how both the Song and the Liao first obtained a material basis sufficient for self-preservation and then in the process of further expansion encountered opponents that were capable of protecting themselves. After launching more than one unsuccessful offensive, both the Liao and the Song decision-makers finally acknowledged that they had reached power parity and no longer thought that further attacks would be “profitable.” Hence, they switched to a defensive position, concluded a peace treaty, and maintained it for more than a century.