« Taiwan Journal of Political Science No.35Publish: 2008/03

The Change of DPP Constituency in Taipei: A Study in Taipei Mayoral Elections and Presidential Elections

Author: Shih-Hung Lee

Abstract / Chinese PDF Download

Electoral   stability   and   change   is   an  interesting   issue   for   officials   andresearchers alike. Recently, the partisan ecology has undergone dramatic changes inTaiwan.  Viewed  in  this  light,  this  work  aims  at  examining  not  only  the  electoralstability  and  changes  but  also  the  variations  in  electoral  stability  during  differentperiods. In this study, we take the cases of the Taipei mayoral elections in 1994 and1998  and  the  presidential  elections  in  2000  and  2004  and  take  advantage  ofecological  inference  with  Goodman’s  and  King’s  ecological  regression  to  explorevariations in the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP’s) loyal supporters in Taipeicity. The results reveal that the loyal supporters are not constant in some districts.To go into more detail, in Datong district (大同區) and Zhongshan district (中山區),they show an increase. But in Xinyi district (信義區) and Nangang district (南港區),they show a decrease. In conclusion, we summarize the major findings and proposeresearch suggestions for further investigation.

Keywords:Chen Shui-bian、Ecological Inference、Ecological Regression、Electoral Stability/Change