The Change of DPP Constituency in Taipei: A Study in Taipei Mayoral Elections and Presidential Elections
Author: Shih-Hung Lee
Abstract / Chinese PDF Download
Electoral stability and change is an interesting issue for officials andresearchers alike. Recently, the partisan ecology has undergone dramatic changes inTaiwan. Viewed in this light, this work aims at examining not only the electoralstability and changes but also the variations in electoral stability during differentperiods. In this study, we take the cases of the Taipei mayoral elections in 1994 and1998 and the presidential elections in 2000 and 2004 and take advantage ofecological inference with Goodman’s and King’s ecological regression to explorevariations in the Democratic Progressive Party’s (DPP’s) loyal supporters in Taipeicity. The results reveal that the loyal supporters are not constant in some districts.To go into more detail, in Datong district (大同區) and Zhongshan district (中山區),they show an increase. But in Xinyi district (信義區) and Nangang district (南港區),they show a decrease. In conclusion, we summarize the major findings and proposeresearch suggestions for further investigation.