國立臺灣大學政治科學論叢

Abstract / Chinese PDF Download

This article starts its discussion from three theories that anticipate the future ofChina’s  democratic  development;  namely  the  “modernization  paradigm”,  “regimestability  theory”,  and  the  “reconciliation  theory”.  These  three  theories  all  offercertain explanations, but neglect the possibility of anticipatory deviation due to thecontinuation  of  China’s  institution.  Therefore,  this  article  attempts  to  bring  up  afourth kind of anticipation, and to analyze the emerging rank and government thatbenefits from economic reforms.It  is  discovered  that  during  the  process  of  economic  reforms,  the  Chinesegovernment led an unprecedented “forming new rank” movement. And thus albeitunintentionally, the constitution of the new rank was “chosen”.Following  on,  by  investigating  the  ruling  of  the  Chinese  government  duringthe  transitional  period,  this  article  finds  that  this  environment  brings  the  newcapitalist   class   rising   from   the   openness   of   the   market   into   the   track   of“relationship”,  thereby  generating  a  close  cooperation  between  this  new  rank  andthe authorities, and even going so far as to make the former a part of the regime.Consequently, this article believes that in facing this emerging class, we mayhave to hold a more pessimistic view on the future of China’s democratic prospects.